Wednesday, February 11, 2009

When to invest in real estate - What about now?


THESE FACTORS MAKE FOR A GREAT INVESTOR REAL ESTATE DEAL

I know it sounds strange, but it's true. Today's dire economic circumstances have conspired to produce the perfect real estate storm. At least that's the case if you are in the market to find a bargain. Huge inventory, low interest rates, and highly motivated sellers all combine to make this an ideal time to pick up a house, or two, or even three. But before we all rush out and buy the first house we can find, let's look at the four most important factors of an investor real estate deal:

** LOCATION
If you are looking for a rental property that will pay for itself on a monthly basis, you may be best off looking in lower middle class neighborhoods where most of the owners occupy their homes and keep their homes in relatively good condition.Gang graffiti and boarded-up doors and windows are signs to avoid, while accessibility to transportation and relatively recent construction make for good rental income properties. Good public schools are also an important feature for many prospective renters.Another desirable feature related to location is a neighborhood where most of the homes are similar in size and amenities. You want to buy in a neighborhood where the other properties won't pull down your value due to wide-ranging sales prices.

** CONDITION
Try to avoid neighborhoods where most of the homes are less than three bedrooms and two baths, or where most of the construction is pre-1950. Homes more than fifty years old will eventually need almost all systems updated, and that is an expense to avoid in a rental situation.Homes less than ten years old have almost all up-to-date systems, and shouldn't need major renovations any time soon. In addition, newer homes sometimes offer space for expansion, an inexpensive way to add a bedroom or office.In an ideal situation, the home should need no work before the renter moves in. However, in today's real estate market, the condition is where you are going to find the greatest degree of variation. At no time in the past thirty years has there been such a large number of homes on the market needing significant repairs.Many of these homes are bank-owned, and some are uninhabitable. Others may need nothing more than paint and carpet. Being able to distinguish between the two extremes is critical to your success in finding a great deal. At the very least, make all offers contingent upon a full inspection of the property and a satisfactory estimate for all needed repairs.

** PRICE
The glut of bank-owned homes has, in my opinion, kicked the floor out from under the Atlanta residential real estate market. We don't know what anything is worth, because so many of the comparable sales that appraisers use are distressed sales.But if you can get a price discount in the 40% to 50% range, it really doesn't take a great investor to see that there is plenty of room for upside profit, both in the monthly cash flow and in the long term resale price.I believe that most lenders had, until recently, hoped for a "Resolution Trust Company style" bailout from the federal government. But now that the Obama administration has indicated that troubled bank assets will not be purchased directly, pressure to sell is mounting on a daily basis. Seller motivation is growing.Investors making initial offers on bank-owned homes should be especially careful to stay in touch with the current market of bank resales. Discounts of 25% are not uncommon, and sales at 50 cents on the dollar are being seen by investors. My advice is to start low, then be prepared to negotiate up.

** FINANCING
This is the big wildcard for investment property, because the current Fannie Mae "four property rule" has kept many veteran investors on the sidelines. But if FNMA were to return to the "ten property" limit, or if banks began offering any kind of reasonable seller-financing, the floor under housing prices in Atlanta could be re-established fairly quickly.All but the most ardent "doom and gloomers" believe that the current condition of variable home values will end sooner rather than later, and anyone who can lock in a low price now will be glad they did. But the real key is how to finance that low price.A super-low price combined with a great financing makes for a fabulous real estate investment opportunity. And I believe the solution to this problem is seller financing. I am already starting to get reports of banks selling their houses and agreeing to carry back some sort of financing.The key for investors is not necessarily a 30-year fixed rate loan at 6% interest with nothing down, although that would be nice. Instead, the key is for banks to be able to convert their non-performing assets (the vacant houses) into performing assets (loans requiring a substantial down payment and reasonable qualification guidelines).These loans can be good for the banks and good for the borrower, and they could still be attractive with terms as short as five to seven years. The investment community is ready, but needs the financing to act. Once the banks make this leap of logic, the huge oversupply of vacant houses in Atlanta can begin to disappear, and we can get on with the business of re-establishing a market for real estate.

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